Well That Escalated Quickly... again

On Saturday Trump announced that the US launched Operation Midnight Hammer, working with Israel in striking multiple nuclear facilities in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Sources close to the administration said that Operation Hebrew Hammer was taken.

According to the administration's resident genius J.D. Vance “we are not at war with Iran, we’re at war with Iran’s nuclear program.” This makes a lot of sense. If you remember, Mike Tyson said something similar to Evander Holyfield, “I’m not fighting you, I’m fighting your ear.” So there is precedent for this type of action. Many in the media have called this “strange logic” and “this makes my brain hemorrhage,” but who wants to listen to them complain anyways.

Here are some things to keep in mind now that the USA has escalated this WAR. Much of what we covered last week is still helpful in thinking about the current situation.

First: Remember the Islamic Republic regime is insane

“Oh, but Seena, they were attacked by Israel.”

Yes.

“And they were attacked by the USA.”

Yes. And that doesn’t make them any less insane.

“Isn’t all of this against international law?”

LOL - if there’s one thing we should all know by now is that a nuclear power can do whatever they want. Whether it’s Russia, the US, or Israel, international law is but a mere suggestion of behavior not a requirement. As we say in our house with two toddlers, “SOMEONE is not being a first-time listener.”

Which is to say the Islamic Republic sees that, and when they don’t follow the law there’s no domestic political pressure or humanity that will stop them from sacrificing every life within Iran to meet their ends. Last we week brought up Farnaz Fassihi’s article on the Great-Grandson of Ayatollah Khomenei – the one that came before the guy now, and who’s name I did not pronounce correctly on the show, I’ll await my fatwa. Her glowing portrayal of this brave grandson of the revolution will give you insight into how the regime will approach the coming response:

“I want to say is that we will remain in Tehran, we will not leave this land. Even if we have to sacrifice every ounce of our blood, like a soldier, we will fight,” said Mr. Khomeini. “The enemy has made a massive mistake if it thinks it can dislodge this revolution.”

Here’s where we talk about this article on the show.

Notice that this grandson… 46 years after the regime took power, is still calling it a revolution. Bruh. Lower your cortisol levels, you guys have been in power for decades, it’s ok to stop calling it a revolution. But this is how they think, because their ideology is a global one. And the “we will not leave this land” – baba - everyone is trying to leave Tehran. No one wants to be sacrificed for you. Hence… insane!

Second: Could This Be the Worst Case Scenario?

From our conversation with Ambassador Joseph Manso, he breaks down four possible outcomes, and what is the worst case? It’s if the nuclear facilities stay intact and the regime stays in power. We know the nuclear facilities were hit, but how long did it actually reset the clock for the regime? If anything it seems like as we sit here today on Monday June 23, the regime will hold on to power and try to strike a deal. Even amidst them sending strikes to a US base in Qatar (no casualties reported as of yet).

Third: Watch the Strait of Hormuz

This is the lane in which most of the world’s oil passes through. It’s also how China gets its oil from Iran. On Sunday, the parliament in Iran voted to close the Strait. There hasn’t been any action on that as of yet, and markets are still not taking them seriously. However, if that happens, every American will feel it at the pump. Already the US has called for the return of service member dependents from foreign bases, which is a signal that the US knows that more retaliatory attacks will come. BUT LISTEN, THIS ISN’T A WAR, WE GENERALLY LIKE TO HIDE WOMEN AND CHILDREN ON MONDAYS.

Correction:

• In a segment in our Bonus episode we incorrectly attributed the belief of the 12th Imam to be in the Quran. This is not correct, but the belief comes from Shiites who think that after Muhhamad died the line of succession is very specific, and this is the large disagreement between Shiites and Suunis. All of it is wild, and you can read a quick summary here. My point is the same, the book of spells of one religion will always result in war against the book of spells of another.