Ep. 90: Vance on World Stage
Hey FRs,
This week we broke down the MOU that JD Vance will eventually be saddled with. Go, JD! I mean, I'm sure he won't blow it.
In any case, it's a sh*tty deal, so there's not much he can do to make it worse.
What did the U.S. surrender in this memorandum of understanding?
Quite a lot, and for very little in return. The framework unfreezes $12 billion in Iranian assets, lifts oil sanctions, and hands Iran and Oman operational authority over the Strait of Hormuz — meaning the IRGC now controls whether the world's most critical oil chokepoint is open or closed on any given day. And they get to charge for it!! On the nuke front, Iran agreed only to dilute, not dismantle, its stockpile. It keeps its missiles. It keeps its proxies. The 9,000 kilograms of enriched uranium, including 440 kilograms at near-weapons-grade 60% enrichment, stay in place. Compare that to the 2015 JCPOA, which required Iran to slash its stockpile by 98%, physically remove centrifuges, and accept real-time international inspections. We blew that deal up to negotiate something so much worse.
Why is Israel actively trying to derail the same negotiations its lobbying helped start?
Because their strategic calculus shifted the moment the bombs landed. The Israeli Defense Minister confirmed IDF troops will continue operating in southern Lebanon without restriction, regardless of any ceasefire framework. Itamar Ben-Gvir said publicly that Israel must continue demolishing homes and pushing out residents in southern Lebanon, using the Dahiya doctrine of deliberate disproportionality, a blatant war crime. And these are not rogue statements. They are declared military policy by senior government officials, which is why the ICC's evidentiary standard on intent is becoming harder for Israel's defenders to argue around, although they certainly aren't ashamed to keep trying.
What does China's semiconductor breakthrough actually mean for American economic security?
Much, much more than the chip itself. According to Reuters, China used former ASML employees to reverse-engineer a prototype of the extreme ultraviolet lithography machine that produces advanced semiconductor chips. The machine has not yet successfully produced chips at scale, but it puts China potentially years closer to semiconductor independence than analysts projected. If China achieves domestically competitive chip production with Nvidia-level performance, we're all screwed. The administration spent this month handing over the Hormuz authority to Iran and watching China close the chip gap. Basically, we're just killing it.
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