Ep. 86: The S#*t Jailbreak Plan
Hey FRs,
ICYMI, this week we covered an ill-conceived jailbreak that blew up in everyone's face. And who was in charge of the plan's conception? You guessed it– Donald Trump & Bibi Netanyahu, the Beavis and Butthead of geopolitics.
Did the U.S. and Israel actually try to install Ahmadinejad as Iran's next leader?
They sure did! And a New York Times investigation lays out how. Western intelligence made contact with former Iranian President in early February 2026, probing whether he would step into a leadership vacuum if the theocracy collapsed. Apparently, he was game.
So.....on the first day of Operation Epic Fury, an airstrike hit his residence in Tehran's Narmac district. The airstrike was designed to eliminate the IRGC checkpoint that was holding him under house arrest. Instead, the blast wounded his bodyguards, damaged his home, and ended his interest in the arrangement entirely.
Why was Ahmadinejad considered a viable replacement, and why was that an awful idea?
Well, on one hand, he checked most of the boxes intelligence analysts care about: a figure inside the regime, capable of commanding IRGC loyalty, positioned as a populist outsider after falling out with Supreme Leader Khamenei.
On the other hand, he's a monster. The Green Movement of 2009 began specifically because Iranians refused to accept his reelection. Thousands took to the streets; many were killed. The Iranian public's rejection of Ahmadinejad is not ancient history. It is living political memory, and no amount of Western engineering erases it.
The one bright spot? It reminded me how much I loved Fred Armisen as Ahmadinejad.
What does the failed deal actually leave in place for Iran?
Nearly everything. The emerging framework unfreezes Iranian assets, leaves proxy networks intact, and does not require Iran to dismantle its nuclear program, only to dilute highly enriched stockpiles. Iranian officials are already describing Strait of Hormuz passage fees as an environmental management service, not a toll, which is the most Iranian rebranding of extortion conceivable. The knowledge to rebuild enrichment capacity cannot be bombed out of existence. The Gulf states, who structured their entire security architecture around American deterrence of Iran, are now watching that guarantee dissolve in real time.
So all good things right? And loads better than the JCPOA.
How does the petrodollar collapse explain why China is the actual winner here?
The Gulf security bargain has held since FDR: the U.S. provides military protection, Gulf states price oil in dollars, so every country on earth is forced to maintain dollar reserves to keep their economies running. That arrangement required the credible threat of American force to stay credible. That word "credibility" is having a hard time attaching itself the US at the moment.
China, however, has spent years offering an alternative. An alternative that has no moral conditions, no pressure to democratize, and a competing currency ready to absorb oil trade.
Basically, the operation that was supposed to reassert American dominance in the region has done more to accelerate yuan-denominated oil trading than any Chinese diplomatic initiative could have managed alone.
So yeah, rock on, guys.
Missed the full episode? WTF are you thinking?! 🙃 We got you...
Meanwhile in Ohio: What Travis is Reading ––
Morgan Trau
Last week on TFR we talked about how JD Vance has been assigned the "important" task of rooting out Medicaid and Medicare "fraud," which is "supposedly" happening in his home state of Ohio that is (and has been) controlled by Republicans for over 30 years! As the fallout from this "supposed" fraud continues, luckily an "expert" from The Trump Administration has weighed in –– a real doctor! Okay it's just Dr. Oz who is a "TV doctor," but we love our TV doctors –– don't we folks?!
Drop us a line....
Email us your questions and tell us your thoughts at Theforeignreportlpn@gmail.com.