Ep. 82: Surprise Attack
Week of April 27, 2025
Hey FRs
A 1955-era jet just punched a hole in U.S. air defenses, and that's somehow not the most consequential thing that happened this week, which, of course, is that we punched up our newsletter. Let us know what you think!
Did a Cold War-era Iranian jet actually breach U.S. air defenses in Kuwait?
It sure did. An Iranian F-5 fighter — a jet designed in 1955(!) — struck Camp Buehring in Kuwait, a major US logistics hub where U.S. troops often pass through. The base was not a front-line target. Now it is.
U.S. forces are reportedly rushing anti-drone systems from the British to shore up defenses, which tells you everything about how prepared they were. With their F-5s, the IRGC is obviously not trying to win a conventional air war. They're hunting soft spots, and found one.
Is Russia formalizing its partnership with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz?
Looks like it. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Omani officials on Sunday, then sat down with Putin in Moscow on Monday. That sequencing is not a coincidence. Iran controls roughly 20 percent of global oil supply through the Strait; Russia exports oil and profits when prices spike.
The U.S. is currently seizing tankers paying transit fees to the Islamic Republic, but that can't go on forever. If Russia moves from quiet enabler to formal backer (a public state visit is a signal, not a courtesy call), the economic pressure the U.S. is relying on to break the stalemate becomes less and less likely to work.
Why did Israel just send an Iron Dome battery to the UAE?
Because the Abraham Accords, signed in 2020, just became a military partnership whether anyone formally said so or not. The UAE has absorbed a significant share of Iranian missile fire and needs to replenish its air defenses. Israel has the system and a reason to keep a Gulf partner intact. Makes sense, sure, but a missile defense battery is not an everyday transaction. The UAE may now be on the hook for things it never imagined signing up for when it normalized relations with Israel four years ago.
How does Russia's new five-year deal with North Korea impact the Ukraine war?
Ugh. Probably a lot. Russia and North Korea held a joint memorial ceremony for approximately 2,000 North Korean soldiers killed fighting in Ukraine, then announced a formal five-year military partnership. The exchange is not complicated: North Korea provides bodies; Russia provides financial aid, military technology, food, and energy that international sanctions are supposed to block. The partnership formalizes what was already happening and could extend the war's timeline indefinitely.
Missed the full episode? Here ya go!
Meanwhile in Ohio: What Travis is Reading ––
For the last few months on TFR we've talked about how the war (that's not actually a war) in Iran has impacted the global economy –– but what are the actual implications on small businesses in the U.S.? In Ohio, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland periodically surveys various regional businesses to gage how the economy affects them and the latest results are not good –– from Trump's tariffs to his administration's conflicts around the world, most businesses in Ohio and around the country are struggling to make ends meet
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