Ep. 59: MBS in the House
Hey FRs,
On last week's show we covered climate talks at COP30, or, really, how climate discussions, like most things, are subject to the whims of the wealthy and powerful. COP30 and its lobbyists provided a perfect segue to another topic greatly colored (or sand-washed?) by money– Trump's effusive welcome of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to the White House. Greed is never really surprising anymore, but the warmth of the embrace of both MBS and Saudi Arabia (F-35s anyone?!) did raise a few eyebrows.
Almost as many as Trump's public declaration of support for Mamdani. Too bad NYC isn't in the market for any F-35s.
Seena's Corner:
When the Water Runs Out: Iran's Perfect Storm of Misgovernment and Climate Catastrophe in Iran
There are droughts, and then there’s what’s happening in Iran right now.
In Southern California, a drought means we throttle back on watering our avocado trees for a few months. We get stern warnings from the county– except for Beverly Hills, those fancy folks get their water pumped in from a totally different aquifer! In Iran, parts of the country are experiencing 85% less rainfall than normal. This isn’t a bad year, it’s the sixth consecutive year of severe water drought. And Iran is rapidly approaching what water experts call “Day Zero”: the moment when you turn on the faucet and nothing comes out. Not rationing. Not reduced pressure. Nothing.
Iran’s water crisis is being made worse by global climate change, which is primarily driven by human activities such as burning fossil fuels. These actions contribute to rising temperatures and shifting weather patterns, intensifying drought conditions across the region.
President Masoud Pezeshkian has floated the previously unthinkable: Tehran, a city of over 10 million people, may need to be evacuated. The government is reportedly considering establishing a new capital in southern Iran. Let that sink in for a moment. We’re talking about abandoning one of the world’s major cities because the water has run out.
A Climate Change Crisis Decades in the Making
This catastrophe didn’t materialize overnight. It’s the result of spectacularly poor water management intersecting with climate change at the worst possible moment. The Islamic Republic has over-constructed dams, over-extracted groundwater, and dedicated roughly 90% of its water resources to an agricultural sector that produces minimal food output and employs relatively few people. Poor water management and climate change now threaten food availability in Iran, putting food security and public health at risk. It’s a masterclass in how not to manage a vital national resource.
This is exactly the scenario climate experts have warned about: climate change doesn’t affect all countries equally. It disproportionately hammers nations that lack the infrastructure, resources, and institutional capacity to adapt. Iran, with its combination of poor governance and international isolation, checks all the wrong boxes.
And here’s where the geopolitics get darkly ironic. The regime has found money for nuclear facilities (which were recently bombed by Trump), funding for Hezbollah, training for Hamas, support for Russia’s war in Ukraine (cheap drones), and backing for the Houthis. They’ve invested heavily in projecting power across West Asia through asymmetric warfare and proxy forces. But investing in water infrastructure for their own citizens? That apparently wasn’t a priority.
The Pariah State Penalty for Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Being an international pariah carries costs beyond diplomatic isolation. When you’re cut off from normal international cooperation and investment, you have to do everything yourself. And when you’re trying to go it alone, any weakness in your governance gets amplified. Externalities that other countries might weather become existential threats.
Yes, sanctions have made it harder for Iran to access technology and investment for water infrastructure. But even when Iran does get rainfall, the infrastructure to capture and distribute it often isn’t there, leaving Iran’s water supplies increasingly vulnerable to climate extremes. In 2019 it was clear the country did not have the infrastructure to deal with climate change.
Tehran is already rationing water. So what happens when you add severe food and water shortages to a country already dealing with crushing inflation, economic catastrophe, and labor strikes that have erupted repeatedly over the past five years? What does social stability look like when the most basic human need, WATER, becomes scarce in a capital city of 10 million?
Is Iran on the brink of collapse? Probably not. If there’s one grim constant in Iranian history, it’s the seemingly bottomless capacity of its people to endure suffering. The regime has survived mass protests, economic isolation, and decades of instability. But climate change is different. You can’t threaten drought with a crackdown. You can’t imprison a dry aquifer. You can’t shoot your way out of empty reservoirs.
Meanwhile in Ohio:
What Travis is Reading ––
While we've covered the assassination of Charlie Kirk on TFR over the last few months (as well as the fallout, effects, conspiracies, etc that have taken place since then) one aspect of Kirk's legacy that's being overlooked is the impact it's having on local schools –– in Ohio, our uber-religious Republican state legislature just passed "The Charlie Kirk American Heritage Act" last week, which would allow public schools and public universities to teach the "positive impacts of Judeo-Christian religion" on American history... While all the Ohio Democrats present at the House's session voted against the bill, now the question becomes –– will similar bills start popping up in other states?
On the Next TFR...
We've been doing our best to avoid it, but next episode we talk Epstein 🤮.
And, we're compiling questions for an upcoming mailbag episode, so send us a topic you want us to cover at Theforeignreportlpn@gmail.com.
Have a great Thanksgiving!
