Ep. 56: The Art of the Sh** Deal

Hey FRs,

On last week's episode we talked trade– trade with China, trade with Japan, trade (or no trade) with Canada, trade with Southeast Asia. Are these trade deals as successful as Trump thinks? Uh, no.

We talked bailouts, soybeans, beef, and elections in Argentina. Are we surprised at the impact $40 billion dollars had on Milei's success with voters? Uh, not for a second.

We talked about the quote-unquote ceasefire in Gaza that has already claimed over 200 Palestinian lives. Is Trump doing enough (anything) to make this deal anything other than words on a page & stop it from completely shriveling into dust? Uh, emphatically no.

We talked about JD Vance and why he can't seem to find anything constructive to do with his time. Will he ever stop spouting dangerous nonsense? Uh, I'm afraid not.

We also made a ton of jokes and had some fun poking at the absurdity of it all. Will we ever stop trying to make it bearable? Uh, nope.

Seena's Corner: The Chaos Playbook: How We Got Here (Again)

Create the chaos, reduce the chaos, claim victory for bringing peace in a time of chaos, blame the other side for the chaos that you started. That's how Trump works and only the sycophants think it's a great idea.

Conservatives Don’t Like It
Want to know how bad it's gotten? Oren Cass, the conservative economist who literally advised this administration and contributed heavily to Project 2025, just published this scathing assessment in Foreign Affairs:

"His trade agenda has appeared haphazard, and confronting all countries suddenly, simultaneously, and harshly has needlessly antagonized allies and heightened uncertainty. On China, the administration has oscillated unpredictably, pursuing a sharp decoupling one day and a grand bargain the next."

When one of your own intellectual architects is taking a public dump on your trade policy, you know something's fundamentally broken.

The Latest China Deal: A Case Study in Manufactured Crisis
This recent deal with China is a great example, and I want you to know about it because it will happen again and I don't want you to be shook by the chaos.
In brief, Trump started this latest spat by slapping China with huge tariffs, and they came back with zero purchases of US soybeans (among other things) and chaos ensues. He does a “great deal” last week that includes:

• Soybeans: China agrees to resume some purchases of U.S. soybeans
• Rare earth minerals: China lifts export controls (side note: "rare" is misleading here—the real issue is that the U.S. doesn't want to mine these minerals because we haven't figured out how to do it without slowly poisoning the workforce... so we outsource that problem to China)
• AI chips: We reduce tariffs and sell them the advanced AI chips we explicitly said they should never have
• Fentanyl cooperation: Vague promises about working together on fentanyl precursors flowing from China (which may be deliberate—we're watching this closely)

Translation: "We threatened to be mean, caused six months of pain for American farmers and workers, then gave you better terms while you treat us basically the same way you always have."

How does this spike in existential dread for US farmers or workers actually help them? Don’t worry, I got this - you just gotta be good with your blood pressure redlining for six months and then we’ll get you a slightly worse deal than you had before.

Meanwhile in Ohio: What Travis is Reading--

Last week on TFR we talked about Trump's ongoing economic battle with Canada, so Travis drove from Ohio to Niagara Falls in Canada to see what folks up there thought about the current state of Canadian and American relations! Turns out everyone north of the border just wants to be friends.

Next Week...

We'll be back at it, talking climate change policy, what's happening in Africa, and, of course, JD.

As Always

Send us a message at Theforeignreportlpn@gmail.com. We (still) want to see Halloween costumes!